2019 Oscar Predictions


The 91st Annual Academy Awards will take place Sunday, February 24.  One of the major trends this year has been diversity both in front of and behind the camera.  The two films with the most nominations, Roma and The Favourite, feature strong female performances.  This has been a special year.  It's time to celebrate it, say goodbye to it, and to usher in the new one.  With that, here are my predictions for this year's awards. 

Best Picture
The Academy has made some surprising choices the past few years (Moonlight, Shape of Water).  So I'm going to go out on a limb and say Chadwick Boseman's speech at the SAG awards will help Black Panther bring home the gold.

Best Actor
This is essentially a race between Rami Malek and Christian Bale.  I predict populism is going to win out and Malek is going to win.

Best Actress
This is essentially a race between Glenn Close and Lady Gaga.  Close won the Golden Globe, but I predict Gaga is going home with the Oscar. 

Best Supporting Actor
I predict the Academy will honor Sam Elliott for a lifetime dedicated to the craft.   

Best Supporting Actress
I predict that actor's actor Regina King will continue her reign and take home the gold.  If King doesn't win, I predict the award will go to Amy Adams.

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. Photo by: Tatum Mangus / Annapurna Pictures; ©2018 Annapurna Releasing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. Photo by: Tatum Mangus / Annapurna Pictures; ©2018 Annapurna Releasing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Best Animated Feature Film

I predict Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will win.  There isn't a loser in this category though.  These are all fine films. 

Roma is the favorite but I predict Cold War will pull an upset.

Cold War. Courtesy of Amazon Studios.

Cold War. Courtesy of Amazon Studios.

Costume Design
I predict Black Panther will win.  If not, The Favourite will take this one.

Best Director
This is a tough one to call since Ryan Coogler isn't in the running (and I predicted Black Panther for Best Picture).  Alfonso Cuarón is probably the favorite.  I don't see Yorgos Lanthimos or Adam McKay winning in a year with more personal films.  A win for Pawel Pawlikowski or Spike Lee would be satisfying.  I'm going to be safe and predict Cuarón but hope for an upset.

Best Documentary Feature
RBG was popular with moviegoers this year.  Minding the Gap has a lot of support.  However, the critically acclaimed mountain climbimg documentary Free Solo will probably win.

Documentary Short Subject

This is a tough one to predict since I haven’t seen any of them. Period. End of Sentence is winning the audience vote on Shorts TV’s website. It seems like the least bleak of the nominees and biggest crowd pleaser from what I’ve seen of the trailers. So I’m going to go with that one.

Film Editing
The two movies whose editing I was most impressed by were BlacKkKlansman and Vice. I predict it will go to Vice.

Best Foreign Film
Roma is the favorite.  I am predicting an upset by Cold War.

Makeup and Hairstyling
I predict Mary Queen of Scots will win out over Vice. 

Best Original Score
Disney might have a leg up with nostalgia and good will for Mary Poppins Returns’ score. Alexander Desplat’s taiko drum-infused score from Isle of Dogs is well-respected. However, I’m going to go with the most beautiful score of the bunch, the lovely and understated score from If Beale Street Could Talk from Nicholas Britell.

Best Original Song
This one’s easy: “The Shallow” by Lady Gaga.

Best Production Design

I believe this comes down to First Man and Black Panther. As much as I’d like First Man to take it, I’m gong to go with Black Panther.

Best Animated Short Film
Bao by Pixar is the one to beat.  Animal Behaviour is very funny but it's competing in a year when the other films are all emotional.  It's about a group of animals in therapy.  Late Afternoon was the audience favorite the last time I checked the Shorts TV website.  It's about an old woman who keeps slipping into daydreams about the past as her daughter packs up her house.  I found Weekends strangely moving.  It's about a boy whose divorced parents share custody of him and the way the world looks through the eyes of a child.  The one that brought a tear to my eye though was One Small Step about a young girl whose father believes in her until she believes in herself.  This is a hard category to call.  The Kobe Bryant penned Dear Basketball won last year beating out Pixar's Lou.  Although Bao had a lot of buzz when it debuted, I predict more voters will connect with One Small Step. 

Best Live Action Short Film
The trailers for the live action films are all sort of cryptic. No comedies this year. I haven’t had a chance to watch them yet. Skin has a large lead with nearly half the votes on Short TV’s website so I’m going to go with that one.

Best Sound Editing

Sound editing is creating all the sounds necessary for a film’s soundtrack. Sound mixing is about layering them in, figuring out how loud or soft they’ll be, how close or distant things will sound.
I predict First Man will win Best Sound Editing.

Best Sound Mixing
I predict A Star Is Born although Bohemian Rhapsody was probably more of a feat having to mix in someone else's voice for Freddie Mercury's vocals.


Best Visual Effects
As much as I would love to see some love for Christopher Robin or First Man, I'm afraid this is going to go to Avengers: Infinity War.

Best Adapted Screenplay
This is a hard category to call with such talent.  This could be the Academy's chance to honor a film with fewer nominations.  I'm predicting If Beale Street Could Talk.  My second choice is Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Original Screenplay
Roma and Green Book are the favorites.  I predict First Reformed will pull an upset. 

Be sure to tune in on Sunday and see how I did with my predictions. Follow @RunPee on Twitter as they live tweet the Oscars. Follow me on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/EtchedInGold/) and subscribe to the email newsletter to stay up to date on all things Oscar related.